Only one link this week because it’s a 20 minute video but well worth the listen.
The video is an interview with Campbell Harvey whose yield curve indicator has become a major metric when measuring the likelihood of a recession. If you don’t have the time to watch here are some quick takeaways.
Yield curve inverted in Q2 of this year
The last yield curve inversion was in 2006 and occured 21 months BEFORE the recession of the financial crises
According to Duke’s CFO Global Business Outlook, about 50% of CFOs expect a recession next year.
What should you do?
Like Campbell mentions, it may be a good time to look at risk management. Note that he doesn’t mention moving investments to cash and trying to time a market pull back. Instead he talks about things putting off major expenditures or debts for the time being. Or it could be as simple as increasing your cash reserve. These are things you can control way more than the markets.